Mario Argollo and Donald Trump: Parallel (Wasted) Lives
There is a critical parallel between Mario Argollo, leader of the Central Obrera Boliviana, and Donald Trump, in that both have undertaken destructive social and geopolitical conflicts driven by questionable motivations and using similar strategies. After failing in their initial objectives and encountering unexpected resistance, both figures are seeking a negotiated exit to preserve their own political survival in the face of the attrition of their respective conflicts.
The Red Lines of Social Conflicts
In the social conflict currently ravaging Bolivia, the government seems to have paradoxically opted for non-violence in the face of the extreme aggression of the mobilized sectors. Given Bolivia’s experience in this matter, it seems sensible to set some “red lines” for protest. If these red lines are crossed, the weight of the law, through trials and compensation for damages, must fall with full rigor upon those responsible for overstepping them.
The Thucydides Trap and Bolivian Politics
The Graham Allison’s “Thucydides Trap”—the historical tendency for established powers to clash with rising ones— is applied to analyze contemporary challenges in Bolivia, specifically regarding political governance and the energy transition.
The Perfect Storm for YPFB: Between Internal Sabotage and Global Chaos
Bolivia stands at a crossroads: caught between YPFB’s inefficiency and a global crisis pushing crude oil to $100, Rodrigo Paz’s government faces the dilemma of choosing between the hunger of inflation or the plague of a deficit. With no strategic reserves or foreign currency, the only real way out is aggressive energy diplomacy and a gradual transition toward renewable sources to break the dependency on hydrocarbons.
Four Years of Energy Terror
In the war sparked by the invasion of Ukraine four years ago, Russia employs energy terror by destroying the Ukrainian power grid, causing massive blackouts and a humanitarian crisis in -20°C winters. Ukraine responds with drones targeting Russian refineries, reducing oil production and worsening their fiscal deficit. Energy is a human basic need; energy terror should be outlawed as a crime against.
Energy Storage
This article analyzes the viability of the energy transition, arguing that while renewable sources are now more cost-effective than fossil fuels, the primary challenge remains their inherent intermittency. By exploring various storage solutions, technical solutions exist despite their added costs. Focusing on Bolivia, a comprehensive Energy Transition Plan that democratizes generation through regulatory incentives and attracts diverse private and community investment is mandatory.
The Dilemmas of Tariquía
Bolivia currently faces a critical economic juncture, forcing the government to choose between economic stabilization and environmental conservation. The discovery of the DMO-X3 well near the Tariquía National Reserve epitomizes this dilemma: while the potential 2 TCF of gas could provide vital foreign currency and energy security through exports, the project faces intense opposition due to its proximity to a protected ecosystem and indigenous lands. Ultimately, the situation suggests a shift toward a strategic energy transition, where new gas finds are exported to maximize revenue while the domestic power grid aggressively pivots toward renewable sources to reduce internal gas dependency.
Brief Yearbook of the Energy Sector
A review is made of the milestones of 2025 in the Bolivian energy sector—mostly negative—and pathways for reactivation are suggested based on DS 5503, amid the ongoing hydrocarbons crisis.
Energy Transition or Energy Diversification?
Due to the reality of the Bolivian energy sector, various arguments advocate for an energy transition rather than mere “diversification” or a simple change in the energy mix, as the new Minister of Hydrocarbons intends.
Energy crisis or hydrocarbon crisis?
With the imminent collapse of YPFB, some proposals to refound Bolivia’s largest public company are being analyzed and it is suggested that the opportunity of the hydrocarbon crisis be used to promote the country’s energy transition.